Real Time Economics

Real Time Economics : The Second-Half Outlook: A Global Recession?: "Consumption is poised for its first quarterly contraction since the 1990-91 recession in the coming months, while export growth is losing steam as economic weakness is spreading in Europe, the U.K., Japan, and elsewhere. Prospects for investment and government spending, meanwhile, are shaky at best.

“The global economic slowdown has broadened and intensified,” wrote J.P. Morgan economists Friday in a note to clients, adding that data released this week “should confirm that that Euro area and Japan contracted last quarter….Emerging market economies are also cooling materially.”

Slowing demand for U.S. exports, which have been a crucial source of strength for the economy over the last several quarters, could mean trouble ahead for many companies who have relied on foreign demand as U.S. growth slowed. “The recent downshift has proved more powerful than expected,” the J.P. Morgan team cautioned."